Let’s begin with the obvious: It’s hard to believe that Canada will suffer from rising temperatures. It’s cold much of the year in Canada (average annual temperature, averaged across the country, is 22F.)
But the Canadian government says climate change will hurt the nation’s economy by reducing labor productivity (even though it will increase tourism). What’s new is that a governmental report now suggests that over the next 80 years warming will only reduce the country’s GDP by a total of 6.6 percent.
Writes Ross McKitrick: “The report’s authors consider two scenarios—first, if emission-reduction policies stall at today’s levels and nobody complies with their Paris commitments, and second if countries comply with all their Paris commitments in full and on time. Under the first scenario Canada’s GDP in 2100 will be 6.6 per cent smaller than it otherwise would be.” So if nothing is done (which is quite likely) the impact in 2100 will be 6.6 percent.
And David Henderson (while slightly correcting McKitrick’s math) points out that Canada’s GDP will still grow 364 percent over that time.
The report itself (issued by the Parliamentary Budget Officer) observes:
“Some climate effects like longer growing seasons and warmer weather could increase Canada’s GDP while more frequent days over 30 degrees Celsius, droughts, and severe storms will have a negative economic impact. Studies showing a positive impact on Canada’s GDP rely on a large boost in tourism while those with a negative impact focus on labour productivity (Kahn et al., 2019, Dell et al., 2012).”