Warmer global temperatures mean fewer global deaths. We’ve said that before, even though the media tend to ignore it. Now Stephen Moore (in his Unleash Prosperity Hotline email) reports on a new British study linking temperatures and deaths over the past two decades. Writes Moore:
“Severe cold weather kills far more people than severe warm weather.
“Now we have official confirmation of this from Britain’s Office for National Statistics, which has issued a report concluding that over half a million fewer people died in England and Wales over the last 20 years due to a small rise in temperatures, according to recent work by the Office for National Statistics.”
Moore republishes this table from the report:
| 2001 to 2020 | Average per year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change in deaths |
Minimum | Maximum | Change in deaths |
Minimum | Maximum | |
| More warm days | -45,538 | -47,820 | -43,257 | -2,277 | -2,391 | -2,163 |
| Fewer cold days | -509,556 | -537,670 | -481,441 | -25,478 | -26,884 | -24,072 |
| Net change | -555,094 | -585,490 | -524,698 | -27,755 | -29,275 | -26,235 |
First, you can see that warmer temperatures in England and Wales have led to fewer deaths overall. There are no pluses (i.e., more deaths) in this table; that is, there has not been a net increase in weather-related deaths over the past 20 years. More warm days led to a reduction in 45,538 deaths. Fewer cold days led to a whopping reduction of 509,556 deaths.
Moore adds:
“The U.S. media has almost completely ignored the report as did much of the British news services. It’s no wonder why: this science finding doesn’t comport with the fake doom and gloom ‘scientific consensus’ that the media invented.”
British Office Minimizes the Impact of the Study
Another reason why the media ignored this may be that the authors of the report are coy about its significance. They tend to emphasize predictions for the future and bury the theme in statements like:
“Over a 20-year period the estimated change in deaths associated with warm or cold temperature was a net decrease of 555,094, an average of 27,755 deaths per year (Table 1). A decrease in deaths from outcomes associated with cold temperature greatly outnumbers deaths associated with warm temperature.”
Perhaps to make the report politically acceptable, the researchers did a narrower study of how many weather-related deaths took place in the four warmest months (June, July, August, and September). They found that in those months weather-related deaths did increase by 1643 over the 20 years (82 more deaths per year). However, these were more than made up for by the reduction in deaths related to warmer weather in the rest of the year. The majority of the warm-weather deaths occurred from cardiovascular and respiratory ailments.
Another complication of this warm-weather study is that warm days were defined as being above the “average maximum” of 15.4 degrees Celsius, or 59.7 degrees F. Cold days were defined as below 6.4 degrees Celsius, or 43.5 F. The small difference between the two is worth puzzling over. Sixty degrees F is not very hot. And for the broader study, warm days were those with a maximum above of 13.8 degrees C, or 56.8 degrees F.
The study also looked at hospital admissions, which increased in the four warmer months. However, 67 percent were due to injuries (warmer weather means more outdoors sports) and 22 percent due to cardiovascular issues.
More analysis is welcome!